Thursday, April 11, 2013

What North Korea Wants to Gain by Threats of Nuclear War

Kim Jong-un with Scepter
"Oh . . . right. That's west. I forgot we're North Korea."
Picture: AP
April 4, 2013
Metro News

Does North Korea want war?

Family and friends back in the States and other places have been sending me worried emails, asking if I'm afraid the North Korean regime might start a war, so I thought I might as well quell the fears of others by assuring everybody that war is the last thing that North Korea wants since that would likely bring its entire system down, thereby ending the elite's luxurious lifestyle and effectively rendering them powerless and subject to judgment for their crimes against their own people.

But if they don't want war, what's all the bluster about?

It's an old game carried to unprecedented extremes this time. For too long, the North would fabricate a crisis whenever it needed food aid or political concessions or something else from the outside world. The world would grow alarmed and offer something. The North would accept and be on good behavior for a while . . . until it needed something new, when it would fabricate another crisis.

But why are they sounding so much more extreme this time?

Two reasons.

First, the game isn't working this time because everybody's figured out how it works and everyone now refuses to play the game, so the North is trying harder to scare everybody into fearing the bluster is genuine.

Second, Kim Jong-un needs to look tough, and what's more, given his youth and inexperience, he has to look even tougher to get the respect of the military, the party, and the people.

So . . . has he gone too far to back down since he's receiving nothing from the outside world?

He hasn't gone too far, and he won't have to back down at all. He has claimed that the yearly, routine, defensive Field Training Exercise (FTX) conducted by South Korea and the United States is a preparation for invasion of the North using nuclear weapons, so when this exercise is finished, he will be able to claim that North Korea's resolve and military power, based on its own nuclear weapons program, intimidated the imperialistic Americans and saved the North from invasion.

That's how I see things, so you can all stop worrying about me . . . unless Kim Jong-un miscalculates, goes insane, or turns out to be really, really stupid.

In which case, thanks for your loyal readership . . .

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At 5:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think a lot of the West, including myself, already think Kim "Young-un" is certifiably crazy. I do agree with your assessment though. DPRK will claim some kind of victory which will probably only make sense inside the borders of the mental institution to your north.


At 6:02 AM, Blogger Horace Jeffery Hodges said...

I hope he's not really crazy since that would upset my calculations . . .

Jeffery Hodges

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At 6:18 AM, Blogger dhr said...

Family and friends back in the States and other places have been sending me worried emails . . .

Here's one of them, and it's a pity the news "here" say that, ok, it may be a bluff, but without explaining the whole social situation more in depth.

Just a magazine, translating an article from abroad, suggested a scenario quite different from yours: North Korea would provide a pretext so as to let the USA increase their weaponry in that area.

At 6:22 AM, Blogger dhr said...

P.S. the article translated was by Park Han-shik, from the South Korean magazine "The Hankyoreh."

At 6:27 AM, Blogger Horace Jeffery Hodges said...

The Hankyoreh is a leftist newspaper that always spins the news in an anti-American direction.

Jeffery Hodges

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At 8:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I am glad to get your perspective. It gives me a clearer view of the situation. We hope and pray you are right,


At 8:24 PM, Blogger Horace Jeffery Hodges said...

Thanks, Uncle Cran.

Jeffery Hodges

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