North Korea's Nuclear Test: Geopolitical Message to China?

North Korea

Think About Geopolitics

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I have concluded that North Korea's nuclear-weapons program is directed primarily against China.

Why?

Because such a policy makes sense geopolitically and explains some of the North's behavior. Readers will recall my expression of bafflement at North Korea's abrupt test after having initially "informed China [that] it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks." China confidently passed this information on to the U.S., only to be embarrassed at the North's sudden reversal. At the time, I wondered why North Korea were willing to appear so erratic, especially at the price of slapping China in the face, and I expressed my continuing bafflement:

The baffling part about North Korea's decision to test its nuclear weapon is its apparent indifference about embarrassing its patron China, which had just reassured the world that the North was not about to test a nuclear weapon and which is currently apoplectic enough to criticize the Kim Jong-il regime for its "flagrant and brazen" violation of international opinion -- China's way of letting the North know that it's very angry about its loss of face.

China's expression "flagrant and brazen" was duly noted by many commentators because the phrase (hanran [悍然]) is ordinarily reserved for describing actions by hostile powers.

I then noted that the Marmot had posted a link to a CNN report, "NK army 'wants early nuclear test'" (CNN World, North Korea: Nuclear Tension, October 8, 2006), that clarified my bafflement as to why North Korea would choose to embarrass its patron China:

U.S. envoy John Bolton said last week that while Britain, France and Japan had made clear [that] a strong statement was needed to warn Pyongyang against testing, he was not certain "what North Korea's protectors on the (U.N. Security) Council are going to do".

In response, Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya said: "I'm not sure which country he is referring to, but I think that for bad behavior in this world no one is going to protect them."

Wang's remark riled North Korean generals who bristled at the notion of needing China's protection and urged their leader, Kim Jong-il, to bring the test date forward, said the source who requested anonymity.

"North Korea is especially unhappy with China," the source told Reuters after speaking with senior North Korean officials.

"This is chauvinism. North Korea does not need Chinese protection. North Korea is no longer a dependency," the source cited the North Koreans as saying.

From this, I concluded that North Korean nationalism, directed against China, spurred the military to "urge" an earlier test.

But North Korea wasn't simply reacting emotionally out of an aggrieved sense of insult to its hypernationalism. Rather, it was expressing an underlying geopolitical strategy, and China's use of the word hanran, implicitly treating North Korea as a hostile power, shows that China recognized this.

Jodi, over at Asia Pages, has recently posted in "Uneasy Moments" a statement that she heard a Chinese man tell a group of South Koreans who were blaming the U.S. for the North Korean test:

[In] the closing of the discussion[,] ... the Chinese man said in a quite terse tone to the South Koreans, "You have to realize though that North Korea is causing a very huge problem for China as well."

Well, what is this "very huge problem"? The problem is not merely that Korea embarrassed China. That's not a huge problem -- and certainly not a "very huge" one. The enormous problem for China is that North Korea chose a critical moment to declare not only its independence of China but its nuclear hostility toward China. Precisely that is the "very huge problem for China."

If I'm right, North Korea's implicit geopolitical circumstances open a window of opportunity for the U.S. and South Korea to reach out to the North.