North Korea: Not Bluffing, But ... Baffling

Nuclear Fireball

(Image from Wikipedia)

North Korea may not be bluffling, but it's certainly baffling.

Over at The Korea Liberator on Sunday, Richardson cited a CNN report that the North had told China that it might not test its nuclear device:

North Korea informed China it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks with the communist country, a former South Korean lawmaker said Sunday.

The North also denied speculation that its nuclear test was imminent and said the regime has not raised the alert level of the country's military, said Jang Sung-min, citing a telephone conversation with an unidentified Chinese diplomatic official.

North Korea warned the Chinese official, however, that it would accelerate its preparations for a nuclear test if the United States moves toward imposing sanctions or launching a military attack, Jang said, citing his contact.

In Richardson's view, the North had a tactical aim in its decision:

Perhaps not wanting to use up the precious nuclear card, North Korea has signaled that won’t test a nuke if the U.S. will meet in bilateral talks; plain and simple blackmail.

That seemed like a reasonable interpretation to me. Those crafty North Koreans were simply bluffing and using the bluff to ratchet up pressure for bilateral talks with the U.S.

The North, however, prefers baffling us to bluffing us, for less than 24 hours after the China report, came this update, commented upon in a follow-up post by Richardson:

Things are about to get interesting. North Korea claims to have tested a nuke; seismic confirms an explosion.

I was taking a lunch break in my office when I read Richardson's breaking news, and I happened to be the first to post a comment:

This comes rather suddenly upon the heels of the North's denial that "its nuclear test was imminent."

Given the unlikelihood that the U.S. has moved "toward imposing [new] sanctions or launching a military attack" in the brief 24 hours since the North warned against such moves, then this nuclear test is even more puzzling.

The test is yet more baffling when one considers that the North had "informed China [that] it may drop its plan to test its first atomic bomb if the United States holds bilateral talks."

Whether this was a nuclear device or a whole lot of TNT used for simulating one, its use so soon after its statements yesterday makes the North look extremely erratic. It might also prove embarrassing to China.

So … what was the point? Was this an accidental firing? Or does Kim Jong-il want to look erratic? Or does the army call the shots now, overruling the government’s position? Or was there a remarkably coincidental earthquake?

Bizarre.

I suppose that living in Korea, trying to read up on both Korean history and current events, and even taking a scholarly interest in the region, I ought to have more insight ... but I don't ... not yet, anyway.

In a comment to a more recent post by Joshua, also of The Korea Liberator, USinKorea suggests a message scarier than bluffling or baffling:

I think NK is desperately saying that if some internal problems come up next year -- rebellions, revolts, major splits at the top of the society [--] and [if] the US tries to exploit it, the NK could nuke Seoul. I think that is the message the timing of the test is sending out.

If the worst were to happen, here's what to expect:

The sound of the explosion was so loud, so prolonged and so unusual that I knew at once I was listening to a historic singularity...